A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
